The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By Trilogy Financial
May 21, 2018

Your first thought, spend it! But how? Is it the house project you and your spouse have been discussing for the last several months? Should you pay down your credit card balance? Go on a trip? Wait, you’re excited about the refund, but in retrospect you should have adjusted your allowances so that you didn’t give the government an interest free loan over the course of the last twelve months. With that said, should you fire your accountant? Well, it’s too late now. Take a moment, and think through the best use of this money? What are your short-term priorities? How do those priorities align or even conflict with other priorities that are further down the road? Should the refund have just one focus?

Let’s first sort through what we need to consider. Is this refund enough to actually complete the house project or will you actually have to put the remaining balance of the project on a credit card? Do you have your three to six months of savings in your emergency fund? What are the interest rates of your current credit cards? What is the current state of the market? Are you comfortable with market risk if you were to invest your refund? How secure is your current career? How variable is your current income? These are significant questions and require more diligence than, quickly hiring the contractor to install heated floors in that master bathroom. Give some intentional thought to this prior to your refund arriving in your bank account. Meet with a Certified Financial Planner to not only consult about what to do with your tax refund, but also your current planning situation and existing investment accounts and risk management plan.

Prior to the receipt of your tax refund, create a pie chart, sort through your most important priorities and time frames, then allocate accordingly, without heavily weighting one priority over the next. Make your refund go further. Start with savings, then, make a larger credit card payment than the monthly minimum if a balance exists, assuming the interest is in the teens. Tuck a portion into the stock market. If you anticipate needing or wanting the money prior to retirement, establish or contribute a portion of the refund to a non-retirement investment account. Only after taking these steps should you allocate funds to a home project. Why? You have now considered long-term planning first, then addressed short term priorities. Life happens, homes need upgrades, and travel is always an option. These plans will ALWAYS be available and present. Retirement and long-term planning will not happen, if you don’t plan now. Meet with a Certified Financial Planner to sort through what to do with your tax refund. Finally, discuss this with your CPA in preparation for next year’s taxes to sort through how you can limit the refund and have more cash available over the course of the year.

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
August 26, 2018

There is one area of planning that gets glossed over, even by the many responsible people: long-term care planning. For so many, it is difficult to plan for something that seems so far removed from their current existence. Many also assume that their current health insurance or Medicare will cover most expenses associated with long-term care. Unfortunately, these mistakes leave them ill-prepared for the expensive reality.

As the US government estimates 70% of individuals who are currently 65 “will require some form of long-term care”.1 Therefore, this is more of an eventuality for most folks than it is a possibility. When an individual’s health starts to decline, hopefully, multiple levels have been put into place. Not only should you be concerned with who will care for you physically, you must all consider who will care for your finances.

Physical Care –The costs for long-term care can be surprising for many, with the average 65-year-old paying approximately $138,000 over his/her lifetime.2 As mentioned earlier, Medicare or private health insurance rarely covers all types and expenses of long-term care. Medicaid assistance varies by state and requires that an individual “must spend down his or her assets and meet other criteria.”3 Additionally, It is important to talk with your loved ones about long-term care options, not only about what one can afford but equally as important, what one prefers.

Ultimately, many end up paying for long-term care from their own finances – 50% according to the Bipartisan Policy Center report.4 To protect your finances and the finances of your loved ones, it is vital to prepare for these possible scenarios. There are many long-term care insurance policies that can provide you the assistance your particular situation needs. The premiums for these policies are much more affordable the younger you are. While some of these policies can get a bit confusing, a financial planner can easily go over these policies and help you determine which one would be best for your particular situation.

Financial Care – The key to financially protecting a client in declining physical or mental health lies in teamwork. The team, which consists of their financial team members (financial planner, tax professional or estate planning attorney), delegates and medical professionals. While we all continue to focus on our own particular role and duties, maintaining a professional relationship does give us the opportunity to share any concerning or unusual behavior concerning our client, as well as execute things quickly and as close to the client’s wishes as possible. Equally important is a Durable Power of Attorney (DPA), which legally allows an individual to designate someone to make financial and medical decisions on their behalf should they become mentally incapable to do so. Having these safeguards in place can save on time and hassle should health matters deteriorate and allow your delegate to focus on more pressing issues.

When so many of us pride our independence and self-reliance, declining health issues can be downright scary. I understand this well as I do my best to set my clients up for financial independence, so they can create the life they want to live. When circumstances step in and disrupt your life, it’s vital to know that you have people to rely on and safeguards to protect you.

1. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/11/17/retirement-planning-should-include-long-term-care-costs/866344001/

2. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/11/17/retirement-planning-should-include-long-term-care-costs/866344001/

3. https://www.consumerreports.org/elder-care/elder-care-and-assisted-living-who-will-care-for-you/

4. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/retirement/2017/11/17/retirement-planning-should-include-long-term-care-costs/866344001/

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