The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Zach Swaffer, CFP®
February 19, 2019

We all know we should save more. We all want to save more. Yet, month after month we face the same Groundhog Day scenario: paying all of the bills only to realize that – yet again – there is simply nothing left to save. Sound familiar?

Think about it for a minute. In our Groundhog Day scenario, you are dutifully paying every creditor in your life except for the most important: yourself! It’s time to change the narrative: moving forward, think of saving money as paying yourself. You spend all month working hard. You deserve to keep some of the compensation for that hard work. You on board? Great! To keep you honest, we’re going to set up automatic contributions.

Automatic contributions to savings or investments are a crucial step in building a stable financial foundation. Establishing automatic transfers tied to your paycheck schedule ensures that you will pay yourself for all of your efforts at work and invest in your future. It codifies the “pay yourself first” mentality and aligns your monthly spending with your available discretionary income. For example: if I see extra money sitting in my account, I’m likely to splurge on a fancy meal, or buy a plane ticket to visit my sister. Then the end of the month rolls around, and there is no money left over for saving and investment. On the other hand: if I never see the money in my account, I don’t miss it!

By paying yourself first (saving as money comes in), you will see less money sitting in your account and, accordingly, you will spend less. Over time, you won’t even notice the money being set aside. Your spending habits will have auto-adjusted to your new, post-savings cash flow. (I promise!)

One of the best parts of a “pay yourself first” system is that you don’t have to feel guilty about spending the money in your checking account. Having automatically set aside your monthly savings, you’re free to spend the rest of your money as you wish! Regardless of your balance at the end of the month, you can rest easy knowing your financial foundation is secure.

As a financial advisor, I find a “pay yourself first” savings model to be far more successful than any strict budgeting system. Budgets require line item expense tracking and don’t adapt easily to unexpected expenses. Establishing automatic transfers to “pay yourself first” allows you to maintain a more flexible budgeting system – while still sleeping well at night knowing that your saving objectives have been met.

If you would like to talk about establishing an automatic savings plan or your personal situation please contact me at zach.swaffer@trilogyfs.com.

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
April 13, 2018

Many people accept that humility is a virtue, one that contributes to an individual’s success or legacy. Treating others respectfully and as equals is a courteous thing to do, as is recognizing everyone’s individual value and innate strengths. This is what I teach my children and the value that I integrate into how I run my business as well as my life.

This extends far beyond an altruistic ideal, though. Humility is not simply being self-depreciating or passive. In fact, it’s less about our relationship with other people and more reflective of the relationship we have with ourselves. Humility is about being fully aware of your humanity and your interdependence with others. It allows us to be self-aware and recognize where we may have gaps in our knowledge or in our control. This is a proven value that can have concrete and positive ramifications in our everyday life, specifically in our investments. Trust me, it’s not that big of a leap.

  1. Humility is understanding that I do not know everything. This means that I can make mistakes. It also reinforces that there are others who may have more knowledge or a different perspective that may provide value to the decisions I make. Whether you’re talking about a doctor, a lawyer, a tax accountant or in my case, a financial planner, there are folks who have the knowledge and passion to help you.
  2. Humility is understanding that I do not control everything. This means that things will happen that I have no power over, that I could not predict, and that may cause a few bumps in the road. In those moments, it’s good to refrain from acting impulsively or emotionally. Preparation and flexibility are also key. It’s best to plan for emergencies, fluctuations in the market, and other surprising events to understand what to expect, stay focused on the bigger picture and be prepared for not necessarily doing things “as usual”.

Once we accept these points, we can recognize where we may need assistance and be open to advice from expert counsel. When we do that, we do it for our own personal benefit, arming ourselves with the resources for monetary and overall success. Michael McGrath sums it up nicely in his article, “Humility in Investing: Why It’s Important”,

“Overconfidence tells you that it must be the other thing that was wrong—I see it all the time in my work. But humility allows you to say, “I’m not perfect, was there something that I might have been able to do better?”1

The Advisors at Trilogy Financial are here to be your resource on the road to doing things better. Our accomplishments are measured by your success and ability to achieve your financial freedom.

1 http://moneyinc.com/humility-investing-important/

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