College – The Next Chapter: The Selection Process

FIRE, an acronym for “Financial Independence, Retire Early” is trending as a new financial lifestyle.  In a nutshell, FIRE promotes extreme savings in your 20s, 30s, and 40s, with the goal of being able to live off passive income from the accumulated nest egg much earlier than typical retirement age.  Some proponents suggest saving 70% of your income until you have collected 25x your annual salary, cutting your working years in half.  Extreme saving is not a new idea, but the phrase has taken off in the last couple of years, creating a cult following online.

Putting aside additional savings to fund a “work optional” lifestyle is a fantastic idea in theory, but most Americans would find it quite difficult to only live on 30% of their income without making DRASTIC changes.  If you are willing to downsize, live with roommates in a cheaper part of town, eat beans and rice, drive an old car/take the bus, and limit purchases, you could be successful at FIRE.  However, this level of deprivation may cause unintended sacrifices that impact your social life and happiness.

Our take on FIRE is to find your happy medium.  For example, you absolutely should increase your savings rate incrementally every year if you can afford to do so, but initially choose an amount that’s attainable.  To help you get started, these are the questions we encourage clients to consider:

1) What is your current cash flow?

Do you have a firm grasp on how much you spend on monthly groceries?  Going out to eat? Gifts at the holidays for friends and family?  The key here is to consider all expenses, not just big-ticket fixed items like your car payment or mortgage.  Once you have an idea of how much you are spending compared to household income, you can then evaluate your current savings rate.

2) Where can you cut back to increase your savings rate?

Can you meal prep on Sundays to avoid going out for lunch during the week?  Can you stay in to watch a movie instead of going to a theater for date night?  Are you willing to have a “no-spend” week?  Some people use tracking software (our firm provides EMoney to our clients) to help set up electronic budgets to alert you when you are close to going over set categories of spending. Alternatively, can you bring in additional income via a side hustle?  Can you work additional hours at work to qualify for overtime pay?  Make an honest assessment to determine where you could potentially improve your cash flow on a monthly basis.

3) Are you debt-free, or leveraging debt appropriately?

A mortgage with a low-interest rate is an appropriate means of financing a lifestyle you want, while potentially building equity via real estate.  If you still have student loans or credit card debt, though, your increased cash flow should go towards paying this off ASAP. Just make sure you have 3-6 months of living expenses built up in an easily accessible emergency savings account as well.

4) Outside of your emergency savings, are your accounts keeping pace with inflation?

Historically, inflation rates average around 3% annually.  This means that your purchasing power decreases, as the cost of goods increases over time. Remember when you could buy a Coke bottle out of a vending machine for a dollar? Your parents or grandparents may even recall purchasing a soda for a quarter!  That’s inflation at work. If you’re planning to retire early, this means you need to account for inflation over several decades. The best way to maintain your purchasing power is by investing excess savings in the stock and bond markets and taking advantage of compounding interest over time. A Financial Advisor can determine the best investment strategy for you.

5) Are your investments in a diversified portfolio in line with your risk tolerance?

Trying to time the market to buy and sell holdings is incredibly difficult to do.  Diversification via broader index funds and investing consistently (to take advantage of pullbacks) has proven to be a more successful investment plan for most Americans.  The concern with the FIRE movement is knowing how risky you can or should be with your asset allocation depending on your time horizon to retirement.  For example, if you are closer to reaching your retirement goal, you don’t want 100% of your assets invested in the stock market.   A comprehensive financial planner can help determine how much risk you should be taking on by looking at your finances holistically, and ensuring portfolios are rebalanced regularly according to your needs.

The road to early retirement is still a long one, so you’ll need to regularly evaluate your progress, reassess as needed, and don’t forget to acknowledge small victories!

Our advice is to push yourself to save more, without going to the extremes of the FIRE lifestyle.  If you would like additional accountability, Trilogy offers progress checks through our Decision Coach process more frequently than annual reviews.  And if you need a road map to help find your path to success, reach out with any questions here.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine what is appropriate for you, consult a qualified professional.

In 2015, Americans spent $225 billion on long-term care. That’s 7 ½ times what was spent 15 years prior, in 2000. With the great advances we have made in medicine and medical technology, people are living longer. The downside to that is that it means people are more likely to need care and need it longer. In fact, over half of people turning 65 will need long-term care at some point in their lives.(1)

Types Of Long-Term Care

When you think of long-term care, skilled nursing facilities are probably what comes to mind. However, that is actually the last step in the long-term care journey. Most long-term care is not medical; it is simply assistance with basic activities of daily living like bathing, dressing, eating, and going to the bathroom.

Even without serious medical problems, most people become less and less capable of taking care of themselves as they age. Traditionally, people would turn to family for help with such things. However, in our modern era where families live far apart and adult children are already overburdened with careers and children, more and more people have to pay for long-term care services.

The most basic, and least expensive, form of care is homemaker services. Homemaker services do not involve anything medical, but rather things like meal preparation, cleaning, and running errands. The next step up, which does have a medical component, would be a home health aide.

Once basic in-home assistance is not enough, specialized facilities are needed. Care outside of the home can be in the form of adult day healthcare, assisted living facilities, and nursing homes.

Costs Of Long-Term Care(2)

Costs vary depending on the type of care needed and the part of the country in which you live. On an annual basis, the national average goes from just under $48,000 for homemaker services to over $97,000 for a private room in a nursing home, and that number is growing about 3-4% a year.

Things change drastically when you look at specific locations. In San Francisco, homemaker services are more than 150% the national average and growing twice as fast. A private room in a nursing home averages $171,185 a year. Even downgrading to a semi-private room still costs over $141,000 a year. Twenty years from now, that same semi-private room is expected to cost over a quarter of a million dollars.

As you can see, long-term care can be very expensive, especially with the rise of dementia, where people can live a long time while needing care. In 2018, the estimated lifetime cost of care for someone with dementia is $341,840,(3) and it’s probably much higher in a state like California.

Ways Of Paying For Long-Term Care

Because of the high cost, it is important to plan ahead for long-term care. There are a number of ways to pay for care, each with its advantages and disadvantages.

Medicaid

The vast majority of Americans turn to Medicaid for their long-term care expenses. However, it’s not because it’s a great option. Rather, it’s their only option. In order to qualify for Medicaid, you have to have a low income and low assets, so it’s not really something people plan for intentionally.

Self-Insure

On the opposite end of the spectrum from the people that can qualify for Medicaid are those who have amassed enough wealth to self-insure. If you have $50 million in assets, you can afford to pay $170,000 a year for a nursing home and it won’t have a significant impact on your finances.

The danger is that sometimes people take too great a risk thinking they can self-insure. Often, care is needed later in retirement when savings have already been spent down significantly. Having $500,000 in the bank may seem like a lot of money, but long-term care expenses can eat through it very quickly. Unfortunately, it’s not uncommon for a couple to spend all of their savings on the husband’s care only to leave the wife destitute at his passing.

Life Insurance With A Long-Term Care Rider

One option for those that find themselves in between broke and very wealthy is adding a long-term care rider to their life insurance. If you have, or are planning on purchasing, permanent life insurance, your policy may allow you to add a rider that would help pay for your long-term care costs. Using the long-term care option will often lower your death benefit, but many people appreciate knowing they will receive a benefit even if they never need long-term care.

Premium Paying Long-Term Care Insurance

Another option is buying pure long-term care insurance. Like with most kinds of insurance, you pay a regular premium in exchange for receiving a benefit when you need long-term care. One downside to this for many people is that you will only receive a benefit if you end up needing long-term care. As with car insurance where you have to get into an accident in order to get money out of it, if you never need care, you never see your money again.

Asset-Based Long-Term Care Insurance

The final option has been the fastest growing long-term care option over the last decade.(4) It is a combination of long-term care insurance and single premium life insurance, commonly called asset-based insurance.

The way it works is that you pay a large amount up front and then low annual premiums. You have several times your initial deposit available tax-free for long-term care needs. If you never use it or cancel your plan, you usually get your deposit back plus interest. Some plans even include tax-free death benefits.

Choosing A Long-Term Care Option

Looking at the statistics, you can tell that planning for long-term care is an important thing to do. Failing to do so can be a costly mistake. Because the multitude of options available can be complex and confusing, it’s important to work with an experienced financial professional.

An experienced advisor can explain all of your options to you, help you consider the pros and cons of each, and decide which is the best solution for your particular situation. If you want that kind of help choosing a long-term care option, call my office at (949) 221-8105 x 2128, or email me at michael.loo@lpl.com to set up a no-strings-attached meeting.

(1) https://www.morningstar.com/articles/879494/75-mustknow-statistics-about-longterm-care-2018-ed.html

(2) https://www.genworth.com/aging-and-you/finances/cost-of-care.html

(3) https://www.morningstar.com/articles/879494/75-mustknow-statistics-about-longterm-care-2018-ed.html

(4) https://www.525longtermcare.com/asset-based-ltci/