The Economy and the Election

By
October 29, 2020
Share on:
 

Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

You may also like:

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
April 17, 2019

Now, I’ve mentioned before that I’m not a fan of large tax refunds (see March 1 blog). In fact, if you are consistently getting a large tax refund, you should probably adjust your withholdings so you can dedicate that money to your financial why’s every paycheck. After all, allowing the IRS to hold your money is a bad investment. If you should find yourself receiving one, though, you may be wondering how best ways to use it. It’s only normal to be tempted to do some retail therapy or splurge on a fun experience. However, it’s best to see how you can get your money to work for you before giving in to that temptation.

The very first thing to consider is how much debt you have. Large amounts of debt, whether it be student loans, credit cards or other outstanding financial obligations, can cripple you from saving for your goals. Using your tax refund to pay down debt might be the very thing to get you closer to saving for your goals.

You also want to make sure to bulk up your emergency fund. An unplanned repair, medical expense or job termination can all cost a pretty penny. Without an emergency fund, we may feel tempted to use our credit cards to cover the unexpected expense. As I just mentioned earlier, this simply takes us farther from our goals. Ensuring that we have an adequate emergency fund can make sure that we stay on target regardless of what life may throw at us.

Your tax refund can also be used to work towards your financial independence. Maximize your contributions. If you don’t have a plan, establish one. A little money can go a long way with the help of time and compound interest. Remember: there is no do-over when it comes to saving for retirement, so be sure to do as much as you can now because that time will be here before you know it.

I understand that using your tax refund check to indulge in something today can be quite tempting. More often than not, though, these distractions simply take you off your path to financial independence. You need to make sure that you’re making the money you receive today work to build the life you want to live tomorrow.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
August 26, 2018

The one constant in life is change.

It sounds cliché, but it’s very true. Almost everyone will have a moment where change will rock the typical steadiness of your life. A health scare. An unexpected job change. Divorce. A significant drop in the market (i.e., a bear market) as you’re on the verge of retirement. These shocking twists can make us want to scramble and take immediate action to right our suddenly turned around world.

However, sometimes the simplest solutions are the best. When coping with physical imbalance, the key is to focus on a stationary point.1 This allows your brain to make adjustments to maintain your equilibrium. The same applies to other life changes. Fear and frustration may urge you to take some unexpected course of action to address sudden changes, and sometimes these knee-jerk reactions cause more harm than good. In those highly-charged moments, soliciting some professional council, like from a trusted financial advisor, can help us locate that stationary goal and work with us to identify any adjustments that need to be made.

Every time I meet with my clients, I remind them what we’re working towards. Yes, I want to be made aware of any changes they may have experienced, but I also want to remind them what all the decisions we’re making and actions we’re taking are working towards. We planned for the unexpected expenses by saving an emergency fund. For my younger clients, momentary dips in the market don’t necessarily derail us from our long-term goals. In fact, it actually provides purchasing opportunities. Additionally, markets go down, but they are always achieving new high’s long-term. For my clients on the cusp of retirement, these dips were prepared for by diversifying their savings and expanding their emergency fund. With the long-term goals in mind, it’s easier to see the horizon from within the storm.

The trick of it all is to stay focused on the long-term vision of the life you’re trying to create. I’ve learned that this applies not simply to your finances, but other aspects of your life like your career or your family as well. Changes will occur, and your world may get a little rocked, but as long as you take a breath and continue to focus on your long-term goals, you’ll find yourself on sturdy ground once again.

  1. https://www.scienceabc.com/sports/why-focussing-on-something-helps-in-maintaining-balance.html

Get Started on Your Financial Life Plan Today