The Economy and the Election

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October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
April 13, 2018

Many people accept that humility is a virtue, one that contributes to an individual’s success or legacy. Treating others respectfully and as equals is a courteous thing to do, as is recognizing everyone’s individual value and innate strengths. This is what I teach my children and the value that I integrate into how I run my business as well as my life.

This extends far beyond an altruistic ideal, though. Humility is not simply being self-depreciating or passive. In fact, it’s less about our relationship with other people and more reflective of the relationship we have with ourselves. Humility is about being fully aware of your humanity and your interdependence with others. It allows us to be self-aware and recognize where we may have gaps in our knowledge or in our control. This is a proven value that can have concrete and positive ramifications in our everyday life, specifically in our investments. Trust me, it’s not that big of a leap.

  1. Humility is understanding that I do not know everything. This means that I can make mistakes. It also reinforces that there are others who may have more knowledge or a different perspective that may provide value to the decisions I make. Whether you’re talking about a doctor, a lawyer, a tax accountant or in my case, a financial planner, there are folks who have the knowledge and passion to help you.
  2. Humility is understanding that I do not control everything. This means that things will happen that I have no power over, that I could not predict, and that may cause a few bumps in the road. In those moments, it’s good to refrain from acting impulsively or emotionally. Preparation and flexibility are also key. It’s best to plan for emergencies, fluctuations in the market, and other surprising events to understand what to expect, stay focused on the bigger picture and be prepared for not necessarily doing things “as usual”.

Once we accept these points, we can recognize where we may need assistance and be open to advice from expert counsel. When we do that, we do it for our own personal benefit, arming ourselves with the resources for monetary and overall success. Michael McGrath sums it up nicely in his article, “Humility in Investing: Why It’s Important”,

“Overconfidence tells you that it must be the other thing that was wrong—I see it all the time in my work. But humility allows you to say, “I’m not perfect, was there something that I might have been able to do better?”1

The Advisors at Trilogy Financial are here to be your resource on the road to doing things better. Our accomplishments are measured by your success and ability to achieve your financial freedom.

1 http://moneyinc.com/humility-investing-important/

By Trilogy Financial
June 7, 2024

AI is revolutionizing the way scams are conducted, drastically reducing operational costs while simultaneously enhancing the believability of fraudulent calls. In the 12 months since the launch of ChatGPT, AI-aided identity fraud surged nearly 1,800%, and phishing emails surged by nearly 1,300%, with their quality being the best we've ever seen. Additionally, AI-operated news sites, often used to push out misinformation, disinformation, and propaganda, grew from 40 sites to nearly 600.

Things to Know:

  • Content Farms: These platforms pump out low-quality, clickbait articles to earn ad revenue. Initially, humans edited AI-drafted articles for quality, but now, AI can produce vast amounts of content with little to no oversight.
  • Advertising Concerns: Reputable brands might unknowingly advertise on these spammy sites, which can mistakenly lend these articles credibility.
  • Disinformation Risk: Without human checks, AI can spread false information. This ranges from accidental “AI hallucinations” (fabricated facts) to deliberate disinformation, like fake celebrity obituaries designed to increase site traffic.

Tips for Navigating Content Safely:

  • Critical Thinking: Always question the authenticity of online articles.
  • Recognize AI Signs: Be cautious of sites with generic names or an overload of ads. Look out for errors and placeholders (e.g., “[date]”) that suggest AI-generated content.
  • Take Breaks: Regularly step away from the digital avalanche to avoid content fatigue and maintain cybersecurity awareness.

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