The Economy and the Election

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
October 29, 2020
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Today, conversations, screens, and ads on how the upcoming election will affect our economy and the American way of life are unavoidable. Naturally, we start to ponder how the outcome might impact our own financial independence. Since market forecasters and economic commentators ever really get it right only part of the time, formulating investment strategy based on “expert” prognostications and financial journalism routinely sets individual investors up for failure.

According to historical analysis, in 19 of the past 23 election years from 1928-2016, stock market returns were positive, no matter which party held office. In fact, during an election year, the S&P 500 has experienced an average return of 11.3%—data that demonstrably counters the stock market doom and gloom headline hysteria generated in the media.

While it is crucial not to be emotionally reactive, it is equally important to plan for economic changes that are realistically possible. Following an election, it is wise to assess how federal policies could impact your plan.

A few takeaways…

  1. Separate your personal politics from your investment decision-making.
  2. Remain calm and focused on your long-term plan: thoughtful planning plus sound decision-making matters.

During his First Inaugural Address, our 32nd President reminded the nation that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” If not kept in check, fear becomes a catalyst for rash decision-making which can impede your path to financial freedom. As always, I am here to talk things through with you, to listen, and to assuage your fear; that’s my job.

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By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
April 13, 2018

Many people accept that humility is a virtue, one that contributes to an individual’s success or legacy. Treating others respectfully and as equals is a courteous thing to do, as is recognizing everyone’s individual value and innate strengths. This is what I teach my children and the value that I integrate into how I run my business as well as my life.

This extends far beyond an altruistic ideal, though. Humility is not simply being self-depreciating or passive. In fact, it’s less about our relationship with other people and more reflective of the relationship we have with ourselves. Humility is about being fully aware of your humanity and your interdependence with others. It allows us to be self-aware and recognize where we may have gaps in our knowledge or in our control. This is a proven value that can have concrete and positive ramifications in our everyday life, specifically in our investments. Trust me, it’s not that big of a leap.

  1. Humility is understanding that I do not know everything. This means that I can make mistakes. It also reinforces that there are others who may have more knowledge or a different perspective that may provide value to the decisions I make. Whether you’re talking about a doctor, a lawyer, a tax accountant or in my case, a financial planner, there are folks who have the knowledge and passion to help you.
  2. Humility is understanding that I do not control everything. This means that things will happen that I have no power over, that I could not predict, and that may cause a few bumps in the road. In those moments, it’s good to refrain from acting impulsively or emotionally. Preparation and flexibility are also key. It’s best to plan for emergencies, fluctuations in the market, and other surprising events to understand what to expect, stay focused on the bigger picture and be prepared for not necessarily doing things “as usual”.

Once we accept these points, we can recognize where we may need assistance and be open to advice from expert counsel. When we do that, we do it for our own personal benefit, arming ourselves with the resources for monetary and overall success. Michael McGrath sums it up nicely in his article, “Humility in Investing: Why It’s Important”,

“Overconfidence tells you that it must be the other thing that was wrong—I see it all the time in my work. But humility allows you to say, “I’m not perfect, was there something that I might have been able to do better?”1

The Advisors at Trilogy Financial are here to be your resource on the road to doing things better. Our accomplishments are measured by your success and ability to achieve your financial freedom.

1 http://moneyinc.com/humility-investing-important/

By
Jeff Motske, CFP®
February 4, 2019

Role models have a very powerful function. They shape values and behaviors in all facets of life, including our relationship with our finances. Knowing the influence they have, it’s obviously important to select the right financial role model. However, many are selected with very little consideration, if any at all. When it comes to something as important as your financial independence, you need to be confident that you’re following the right example to ensure that you and your money work together for your greater good.

There are those who are fortunate to have great people in their lives to provide an example of what to value and how to live. If this good example extends to finances, you are very fortunate indeed. However, good behavior or strong values doesn’t always guarantee a good financial role model. A generous nature doesn’t guarantee a good budgeter. Support in your youth doesn’t mean they planned well for their future. When selecting a financial role model, you need to make sure you’re selecting them based on sound financial behaviors and a relationship to their financial independence that you would like to emulate.

Oftentimes, though, many haven’t realized they have already unconsciously selected a financial role model. They may assume that they are simply reacting to circumstances happening to them. However, their response may be a direct duplication of mom’s ardent saving, dad’s faith in the stock market, or Aunt Flo’s blatant disregard for a budget. When we really stop and study our financial patterns, we realize that we have adopted many financial behaviors that may or may not be aiding us in our path to financial freedom. Without any scrutiny of these behaviors, we may be in for a rude and unfortunate awakening in the future.

Rather than unconsciously mimicking behaviors, we should be consciously selecting a financial role model. As with all decisions, be aware of whose lead you are following and what you want that to mean for your finances. Selecting the right example of financial behavior will pave the way to our goals. Don’t forget that your money and your road to financial freedom is under your control – choose wisely.

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