Pullbacks, Corrections, and Bear Markets

By Trilogy Financial
June 14, 2022
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When the market drops, some investors lose perspective that downtrends and uptrends are part of the investing cycle. When stock prices break lower, it's a good time to review common terms that are used to describe the market's downward momentum.

Pullbacks

A pullback represents the mildest form of a selloff in the markets. You might hear an investor or trader refer to a dip of 5-10% after a peak as a “pullback.”1

Corrections

The next degree in severity is a “correction.” If a market or markets retreat 10% to 20% after a peak, you’re in correction territory. At this point, you’re likely on guard for the next tier.2

Bear Market

In a Bear Market, the decline is 20% or more since the last peak.2

 

All of this is normal

“Pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets are a part of the investing cycle.”

When stock prices are trending lower, some investors can second-guess their risk tolerance. But periods of market volatility can be the worst times to consider portfolio decisions.

Pullbacks and corrections are relatively common and represent something that any investor may see from time to time in their financial life, often several times over the course of a decade. Bear markets are much rarer. In fact, between April 1947 and September 2021, there have only been 14 bear markets.3

A retirement strategy formed with a financial professional has market volatility factored in. As you continue your relationship with that professional, they will also be at your side to make any adjustments and help you make any necessary decisions along the way. Their goal is to help you pursue your goals.

 

 

 

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  1. Investopedia.com, August 23, 2021
  2. Forbes.com, September 20, 2021
  3. Investopedia.com, October 29, 2021

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By
David McDonough
October 30, 2019

FIRE, an acronym for “Financial Independence, Retire Early” is trending as a new financial lifestyle.  In a nutshell, FIRE promotes extreme savings in your 20s, 30s, and 40s, with the goal of being able to live off passive income from the accumulated nest egg much earlier than typical retirement age.  Some proponents suggest saving 70% of your income until you have collected 25x your annual salary, cutting your working years in half.  Extreme saving is not a new idea, but the phrase has taken off in the last couple of years, creating a cult following online.

Putting aside additional savings to fund a “work optional” lifestyle is a fantastic idea in theory, but most Americans would find it quite difficult to only live on 30% of their income without making DRASTIC changes.  If you are willing to downsize, live with roommates in a cheaper part of town, eat beans and rice, drive an old car/take the bus, and limit purchases, you could be successful at FIRE.  However, this level of deprivation may cause unintended sacrifices that impact your social life and happiness.

Our take on FIRE is to find your happy medium.  For example, you absolutely should increase your savings rate incrementally every year if you can afford to do so, but initially choose an amount that’s attainable.  To help you get started, these are the questions we encourage clients to consider:

1) What is your current cash flow?

Do you have a firm grasp on how much you spend on monthly groceries?  Going out to eat? Gifts at the holidays for friends and family?  The key here is to consider all expenses, not just big-ticket fixed items like your car payment or mortgage.  Once you have an idea of how much you are spending compared to household income, you can then evaluate your current savings rate.

2) Where can you cut back to increase your savings rate?

Can you meal prep on Sundays to avoid going out for lunch during the week?  Can you stay in to watch a movie instead of going to a theater for date night?  Are you willing to have a “no-spend” week?  Some people use tracking software (our firm provides EMoney to our clients) to help set up electronic budgets to alert you when you are close to going over set categories of spending. Alternatively, can you bring in additional income via a side hustle?  Can you work additional hours at work to qualify for overtime pay?  Make an honest assessment to determine where you could potentially improve your cash flow on a monthly basis.

3) Are you debt-free, or leveraging debt appropriately?

A mortgage with a low-interest rate is an appropriate means of financing a lifestyle you want, while potentially building equity via real estate.  If you still have student loans or credit card debt, though, your increased cash flow should go towards paying this off ASAP. Just make sure you have 3-6 months of living expenses built up in an easily accessible emergency savings account as well.

4) Outside of your emergency savings, are your accounts keeping pace with inflation?

Historically, inflation rates average around 3% annually.  This means that your purchasing power decreases, as the cost of goods increases over time. Remember when you could buy a Coke bottle out of a vending machine for a dollar? Your parents or grandparents may even recall purchasing a soda for a quarter!  That’s inflation at work. If you’re planning to retire early, this means you need to account for inflation over several decades. The best way to maintain your purchasing power is by investing excess savings in the stock and bond markets and taking advantage of compounding interest over time. A Financial Advisor can determine the best investment strategy for you.

5) Are your investments in a diversified portfolio in line with your risk tolerance?

Trying to time the market to buy and sell holdings is incredibly difficult to do.  Diversification via broader index funds and investing consistently (to take advantage of pullbacks) has proven to be a more successful investment plan for most Americans.  The concern with the FIRE movement is knowing how risky you can or should be with your asset allocation depending on your time horizon to retirement.  For example, if you are closer to reaching your retirement goal, you don’t want 100% of your assets invested in the stock market.   A comprehensive financial planner can help determine how much risk you should be taking on by looking at your finances holistically, and ensuring portfolios are rebalanced regularly according to your needs.

The road to early retirement is still a long one, so you’ll need to regularly evaluate your progress, reassess as needed, and don’t forget to acknowledge small victories!

Our advice is to push yourself to save more, without going to the extremes of the FIRE lifestyle.  If you would like additional accountability, Trilogy offers progress checks through our Decision Coach process more frequently than annual reviews.  And if you need a road map to help find your path to success, reach out with any questions here.

The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine what is appropriate for you, consult a qualified professional.

By Trilogy Financial
February 20, 2024

Discover how working with a financial planner can make a big difference in your investing journey. Learn about investing through our beginner's guide to top investment blogs.

 

For many, investing seems like a daunting venture. Navigating through the intricacies of the financial world can be overwhelming, especially when you're just starting out. But beyond the stock market fluctuations and intricate charts, it's essential to grasp your financial aspirations.

 

 

Warren Buffett wisely said, “Don't save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving.” This highlights the importance of financial planning and goal setting when it comes to investing.

 

 

 

 

As emphasized by Jeff Motske, CFP® at Trilogy Financial Services,  understanding your financial “why” is just as pivotal. Are you eyeing retirement? Or maybe that dream home or a new startup? These goals should shape your long term investment journey.

To help beginners transition into the investment realm, here's a two-fold strategy:

 

 

1. Consult a Financial Planner or Advisor

 

Engaging with a financial planner or advisor is akin to having a personalized coach for your financial journey. Just as you wouldn't start an intense workout regimen without gauging your physical limits, investing without a clear vision of your financial goals and investment decisions is risky.

 

 

A financial planner will assist in evaluating your risk tolerance—an essential element in devising an investment strategy. As Peter Lynch, a renowned investor, once remarked, “Know what you own, and know why you own it.” This stresses how important it is to be informed and understand one's investments.

 

 

 

 

 

Financial Advisor Meeting with Client

 

2. Discover the Top Investment Blog Posts for Beginners

 

In Personal Finance, staying on top of your investment portfolio starts with understanding continuous learning is a key ally in the world of investments. Here are some top investment blogs for beginner investors that can offer invaluable insights:

 

  • Investopedia: A comprehensive platform offering a plethora of articles, tutorials, and educational content on finance and investment.
  • The Motley Fool: A trusted source renowned for its stock recommendations and investment advice, catering to both novices and seasoned investors.
  • Seeking Alpha: A blend of free and premium content, providing in-depth research, articles, and analyses on various stocks and investment strategies.
  • BiggerPockets: The go-to resource for real estate investment enthusiasts, packed with guides, resources, and community discussions.
  • NerdWallet's Investing Section: Simplifies complex investment topics, making them digestible for beginners.
  • Nasdaq News + Insights: Get insights from a big stock exchange. Covers market trends, stock market news & analysis, and investment strategies.
  • Morningstar: This blog is a trusted source for investment research. It provides analysis, ratings, and information on stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs. This makes it important for both new and experienced investors.

 

 

A picture of a beginner investment blog.

 

Conclusion

 

Stepping into the investment arena can evoke a mix of emotions. But as you start investing with a clear understanding of your financial goals, expert advice, and regular insights from top investment blogs for beginners, you're on a solid path.

 

 

As Benjamin Graham, known as the “father of value investing,” once said, “The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator.”

 

 

 

 

At the end of the day it's important to ensure you make informed, strategic investing over impulsive decisions. Check out how to avoid Mistakes When Choosing a Financial Planner in our other blog post.

 

Keen on diving deeper into investing? Connect with our top financial planners or explore more articles on our investment blogs for investment strategies.

 

 

Get Started on Your Financial Life Plan Today